Origin Investments Releases Its Multifamily Markets to Watch 2022

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Origin Investments, a leading private equity real estate fund manager, today released a new report created using Origin Multilytics, its proprietary suite of machine-learning models, and insights from its expert team of regional deal acquisition officers. Multifamily Markets to Watch 2022 cites Sun Belt markets Phoenix, Tucson, Las Vegas, Austin and Nashville as metro areas having great opportunities for rent growth, investment and development.

Origin Investments Releases Its Multifamily Markets to Watch 2022

Multilytics evaluated 150 U.S. markets to identify those with the most promising fundamentals for rental rate growth by analyzing billions of data points from a variety of leading independent and government sources. Data included historical rental rates; job, population and income growth; supply and demand; recent migration changes; and housing affordability, among others. Origin combines Multilytics data with the expert knowledge of its acquisition officers to develop its investment and acquisition strategy.

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“While each market is unique and has its own nuances, there are common themes across our Multifamily Markets to Watch 2022 report,” Origin Executive Managing Director of Acquisitions David Welk said. “There is a job creation spigot that isn’t likely to be turned off anytime soon. We are seeing, and in many cases participating in, tremendous investment and development opportunities in several of these markets».

The common characteristics of the selected metropolitan areas include business-friendly environments, four-season lifestyles and increasingly diverse and robust job markets that frequently include big tech, Origin’s report explains. The five mid-sized cities also have room to grow and suburban areas that further enhance expansion potential. Average rent grew 3% in each of the five years leading up to the pandemic, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows. These markets offer high-potential opportunities for multifamily real estate investment and growth far beyond that 3%.

Following are snapshots of each of Origin’s markets to watch:

Phoenix is Rising

Phoenix offers a California lifestyle without the price tag, and that affordability for businesses and individuals is driving demographically and economically diverse growth. Logistics and tech manufacturing serve as growth engines as companies seek to avoid California prices while remaining within one day transit of 33 million people. Semiconductor chip manufacturers have $32 billion in investments underway, while electric-vehicle startups including Lucid, Nikola and ElectraMeccanica aim to turn the area south of Phoenix into an electric-vehicle manufacturing center.

Tucson Is an Up-and-Comer

The stature of Tucson, long considered Arizona’s second city, is rising as an affordable alternative to Phoenix – close enough to capitalize on the proximity without ceding its own distinct identity. As the city’s northwest submarkets emerge as viable alternatives for employees of Phoenix’s southernmost companies, the connection to the state capital could become smoother in coming years with a potential passenger rail route. Expected growth sectors include those that support the city’s biggest private employer, Raytheon Missile Defense, such as logistics and information technology. Virginia-based aerospace/defense company Leonardo Electronics is expanding in Tucson with a new, $100 million semiconductor laser manufacturing facility.

Las Vegas Offers a Solid Bet

Las Vegas is outgrowing its reputation as a gambling mecca and becoming established as an affordable, business-friendly alternative. This is attracting out-of-state investment focused on building a more diverse and dependable long-term economy by embracing industries from health care and financial services to logistics and information technology. California-based machine toolmaker Haas Automation is building a $327 million manufacturing facility in Henderson; the U.S. Department of the Interior is building the $1 Billion Gemini Solar Project, the nation’s largest solar farm, northeast of the city; and hotel and casino projects totaling $4.7 billion will be completed within two years. With jobs and income on the rise, rent growth has a long trajectory.

Austin Shows No Signs of Cooling

The Texas capital remains highly attractive and comparatively affordable to the tech giants flocking there and making significant investments. Oracle, Samsung, Apple, Facebook and Tesla are pouring in billions of dollars and creating thousands of well-paying jobs. The city has a long runway for growth, especially considering that there also will be an influx of companies to support these big-name firms. Austin has the highest income growth and third-highest job growth of all markets studied, but despite its popularity it continues to be comparatively affordable.

Nashville is the Superstar of the South

Nashville’s pro-business, lifestyle-friendly climate with a big-city vibe and world-class culture continues to drive impressive growth. According to the Multilytics analysis, this established market, currently experiencing tight housing supply, is expected to continue its steady job and income growth as planned tech and other industries enter the market. Nearly 200 restaurants, bars and coffee shops, along with 23 hotels, opened in 2020 and 2021. The Tennessee Titans football team is in talks to build a $1.2 billion replacement stadium, and city’s soccer club just opened North America’s largest soccer stadium. Alliance Bernstein, Amazon, Oracle and General Motors are among the companies spending billions and bringing thousands of jobs to the city. All are good signs of continued success there.

Origin Investments is increasingly committed to using artificial intelligence and machine learning to help guide informed decision-making at all stages of the investment, management and disposition lifecycle.

“There is no single metric that any prudent real estate investor or fund manager should rely on when investing tens of millions of dollars in a project,” said Origin Co-CEO David Scherer. “Instead, it’s the compilation of data and intense boots-on-the-ground intelligence that guide which markets to investigate more thoroughly before making any commitments.”

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